The Numbers Cruncher

Understanding China

2010-02-08T06:58:00.001-08:00

NO CHANGE - MORE DEBT

2010-01-23T13:12:00.000-08:00

Updated Jamuary 23, 2010 1515

DOW Jones: Election Day 9,625 NOW 10,172UP 5%

Oil WTI Cushing Spot THEN $36.51/bbl NOW $74.24/bbl UP 55%

Local gas price THEN $1.86/gal NOW $2.79/gal

U.S. Fed Funds Rate THEN .25 NOW .25

U.S.U3 Unemployment THEN 7.2 THEN 10.0% & going UP

U.S U6 Real Unemployment Rate 17.3%

Inflation THEN 0.10 NOW 2.7 *Government deceptive data*

United States GDP Growth Rate before Obama election 0.7 NOW -2.6

National Debt when Bush left office $10,000,000,000,000.00 NOW LOOK IN THE UPPER RIGHT

CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN OR THE STATUS QUO AND WORSE?

Treasury Department Historical Debt Outstanding – Annual

Keynesian Economics vs. Austrian Economics

2010-01-22T06:53:00.000-08:00

We're the Government -- and You're Not

2010-01-12T07:11:00.000-08:00

Find more videos like this on Patriotic Resistance

USA Today: U.S. in fiscal peril with $12.1 trillion debt

2009-12-31T12:52:00.000-08:00

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-12-30-debt_N.htm

Peter Schiff on Time's Person of the Year

2009-12-18T12:28:00.000-08:00

US isn't letting free market work

2009-12-17T09:33:00.000-08:00

The Dollar Bubble

2009-12-08T16:37:00.000-08:00

Moody’s: US And UK May No Longer Be “Triple-A”

2009-12-08T08:49:00.000-08:00

Moody’s: US And UK May No Longer Be “Triple-A” http://247wallst.com/2009/12/08/moodys-us-and-uk-may-no-longer-be-triple-a/

Congressman Kevin Brady-Tiny Tim Geithner-We Have Lost All Confidence In You

2009-11-19T10:12:00.000-08:00

NO CHANGE - MORE DEBT

2009-11-04T18:05:00.000-08:00

Updated November 12, 2009 0815

DOW Jones: Election Day 9,625 NOW 10,291UP 6%

Oil WTI Cushing Spot THEN $36.51/bbl NOW $80.40/bbl UP 55%

Local gas price THEN $1.86/gal NOW $2.69/gal

U.S. Fed Funds Rate THEN .25 NOW .25

U.S.U3 Unemployment THEN 7.2 THEN 10.2% & going UP
U.S U6 Real Unemployment Rate 17.5%

Inflation THEN 0.10 NOW -1.3 *Government deceptive data*

United States GDP Growth Rate before Obama election 0.7 NOW -2.3

National Debt when Bush left office $10,000,000,000,000.00 NOW LOOK IN THE UPPER RIGHT

CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN OR THE STATUS QUO AND WORSE?

Treasury Department Historical Debt Outstanding – Annual

Fall of the Republic HQ full length version

2009-11-04T18:00:00.000-08:00

Fall Of The Republic documents how an offshore corporate cartel is bankrupting the US economy by design. Leaders are now declaring that world government has arrived and that the dollar will be replaced by a new global currency.

Wall Street has hijacked Washington DC

2009-10-28T17:39:00.000-07:00

The future of the American dollar

2009-10-11T07:09:00.001-07:00

World's major powers including China and Russia don't want to 'finance' American military adventures anymore. That's the view of Max Keiser, finance critic and former stockbroker. He says China and Russia are interested in collapsing the US economy by rejecting the dollar.

The Independent newspaper has reported that Middle Eastern countries along with Russia, Japan, China and France are holding secret meetings to end oil trading using the dollar. So what does this mean for the American dollar and the future of the global economy?

Educational video explaining the Constitutional and legal history of the US Dollar. This video contains many high resolution images showing many examples of all the the money the United States has produced since the very beginning. This is the thinking of the people who support a return to the Gold Standard, and rightful Constitutional money. I used nothing but established historical facts, and clear images of the money itself. This is what Ron Paul is talking about, and this is WHY we have the crisis we have now. Regardless of partisan politics, or economic philosophy, gold and silver money is the law. It's vitally important all Americans understand what exactly a dollar IS.

2009-10-11T07:09:00.000-07:00

Americans must prepare for deepening unemployment, inflation and possible breadlines

2009-10-07T18:13:00.000-07:00

Rockstar Economist Peter Schiff tells RT's Marina Portnaya that Lehman Brothers failure was a success not a failure. He says Americans will face increasing unemployment, inflation, and possible bread-lines if government backed bail-outs continue.

Schiff clearly explains how the government unemployment numbers are skewed as the do not account for people who have given up looking for work, or are under-employed part-time workers, or independent contractors such as real estate and insurance agents.

Note this interview occured on September 16, before the latest unemployment numbers, 17%, were released.

The worst is yet to come

2009-10-04T15:28:00.000-07:00

The United States Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics U6 unemployment rate is now at 17.0 percent, 62% higher than September 2008. It is no wonder consumer bankruptcies for 2009 topped 1 million - the most since 2005. That's up 35% from the same time last year and 2010 is looking worse.

The most often media reported unemployment rate is the U3 which is now at 9.8 percent, but this does not reflect what is really happening for the unemployed or under employed.

Below are the various reporting measures of unemployment as a percentage of the labor force based on different definitions noted as U1 through U6 from the Department of Labor.

U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons.

According to the the Sovereign Society, the crisis in Commercial Real Estate is just beginning. Delinquencies on commercial real estate loans recently rose above 3%. That’s more than six times the level of a year ago, but it’s likely only the beginning. Double-digit unemployment and a chastened consumer's are causing office and retail vacancy rates to rise and rents to plummet. Making matters worse, most lenders finance commercial properties with balloon loans. These are typically due in full after just five, seven or ten years, and loose-money loans originated in ’05 and ’06 are now coming due. Yet since values are falling many commercial property owners will not be able to refinance. The problem is widespread too since commercial real estate loans are usually the bread and butter of local banks. Only ten major banks made up the bulk of the housing lending market. Yet, according to The Wall Street Journal, more than 3, 000 banks and savings institutions have more than 300% of their risk-based capital in commercial real-estate loans. And almost $100 billion of their loans coming due in the next three years may have difficulty getting new financing.

A New Wave of Housing Foreclosures will begin in the 4th quarter. Loan modification plans have been largely ineffective because banks have been stingy and loan servicers don’t have the authority to modify many of their loans. Consequently, many foreclosures that have been postponed until now, will be postponed no longer. They’re going to happen. And there are quite a few of them. Mortgage companies hold 1.2 million loans on which they haven’t received a payment in 90 days, another 1.5 million that are “seriously delinquent,” and 217,000 that haven’t received a payment in over a year. In all, 3 million new foreclosures could come on the market in the next year, further depressing real estate prices. A big chunk of those could happen in the next few months. "We are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running," a Bank of America spokeswoman told The Wall Street Journal last week.

No matter what cheerleading outfit the politicians put on the worst is yet to come. The continued loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs per month and senseless building US federal deficit, soon to surpass, $12 trillion, clearly indicate this is a long time event.

CBO predicts Social Security cash deficits in 2010-11

2009-09-23T13:49:00.000-07:00

Exclusive: CBO predicts Social Security cash deficits in 2010-11; Update: Too much sunny optimism at CBO?

September 22, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Four years ago, George W. Bush attempted to reform the entitlement program Social Security, warning that the system was accelerating into collapse and would soon run deficits. Democrats scoffed and claimed the Social Security system was solid and wouldn’t have problems for at least 50 years, as Harry Reid told PBS’ Jim Lehrer in June 2005. Just last year, the CBO — under the direction of Peter Orszag, now budget director in the Obama administration — claimed that the first cash deficits in Social Security would not come until 2019.

Now, however, the CBO has determined that Social Security will run cash deficits next year and in 2011, and by 2016 will be more or less in permanent deficit mode. Hot Air has exclusively obtained the summer 2009 CBO report sent to legislators on Capitol Hill but not yet made public, which shows that outgo will exceed income for the first time since the 1983 fix on an annual basis in 2010:

OASDI Summer 2009 projections: click to enlarge in new window

The numbers need explaining. The number to watch is the “Primary Surplus” number, which watches actual income and expenditures without the interest payments from the general fund. The interest payments mask the fact that costs have begun to outstrip income on an annual basis (individual months have gone into deficit in the past). One way to look at this, according to my sources, is to think of this as a mortgage, and in 2010-11, the income can’t make the payments, so the general fund has to cover them. Since the interest obligation compounds, the debt grows.

As we can see, this trend reverses itself temporarily from 2012-15, but the surpluses are minimal. By 2016, the deficits return, and begin to accelerate again. By 2019, the primary surplus runs $63 billion in the red, almost triple the deficit in 2017, showing the rapid decline of the Social Security system.

This demonstrates nothing better than the poor and politically calculated analyses that came out of the CBO during Peter Orszag’s tenure at the Congressional agency. Democrats wanted analyses that allowed them to ignore the problems in Social Security, and Orszag was happy to supply them. Douglas Elmendorf has had to right the ship at CBO while Orszag continues to blow his predictions at OMB, most notably in overall deficit projections, which Orszag had to admit were off by more than 40% and $2.2 trillion over the next ten years.

Of course, they were helped along by a complacent media unwilling to do math, and a host of apologists for the Left. Chuck Blahous at the Hudson Institute has a good rundown of those he calls the “mythmakers”. It’s worth reading in its entirety, as is Robert Reich’s “All is well!” blogpost from four months ago, apparently working off of the Orszag numbers from last year.
The situation at Social Security is much worse than this administration and Democrats in Congress want to admit. They want to continue busting the deficit and creating new entitlements while the existing ones careen towards collapse. The new data shows that time has almost run out for reform. Seniors will still get their checks, but those will increasingly rely on injections from the general fund and not revenues from Social Security payments. At this point, one has to wonder when SSA becomes a flat-out Ponzi scheme, and who the suckers will be when it blows up.

Update: Fixed a couple of typos, and also recalled (thanks to a Hot Air reader) that SocSec briefly ran an annual cash deficit before the 1983 fix.

Update II: Steve at No Runny Eggs, who has been keeping a very close eye on SSA, says that the CBO numbers project some eye-popping payroll-revenue growth numbers to get back to surpluses (briefly) by 2012. According to the numbers, CBO projects a 6.19% growth rate in 2012, and 5.69% in 2013, then dropping to 4.59% in 2014 and declining afterwards. Assuming that they only peak at the 4.59% number for all three years — still a rather optimistic projection — Social Security never actually comes out of its deficits at all:

You will love the tune

2009-09-01T15:22:00.001-07:00

There's No Stopping the Madness

2009-08-30T16:23:00.000-07:00

Bank lying about their balance sheet, the world's most dangerous man and another bank/real estate crash ahead.

MISH'SGlobal EconomicTrend Analysis

Systemic Fraud on the American Taxpayer

2009-08-30T15:43:00.000-07:00

Listen to this 4 part Max Keiser and you will understand what systemic fraud is and how the American taxpayers and investors the victims of the largest fraud ever known to mankind.

NO CHANGE - MORE DEBT

2009-08-29T03:02:00.000-07:00

Updated September 4, 30 2009 1045

DOW Jones: Election Day 9,625 NOW 9,370 DOWN 2%

Oil WTI Cushing Spot THEN $36.51/bbl NOW $72.74/bbl UP 50%

Local gas price THEN $1.86/gal NOW $2.59/gal

U.S. Fed Funds Rate THEN .25 NOW .25

U.S.Unemployment THEN 7.2 THEN 9.7 and going UP

Inflation THEN 0.10 NOW -2.1 DEFLATION

United States GDP Growth Rate before Obama election 0.7 NOW -3.9

National Debt when Bush left office $10,000,000,000,000.00 NOW LOOK IN THE UPPER RIGHT

CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN OR THE STATUS QUO AND WORSE?

Treasury Department Historical Debt Outstanding – Annual

120% of debt to GDP and 16% Unemployment

2009-08-29T02:31:00.000-07:00

"In the Tank Forever": U.S. Consumers, Retailers in a "Death Spiral," Davidowitz Says

Posted Aug 27, 2009 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein
Related: dltr, fdo, spy, kss, xrt, WMT, CVS

Retail maven Howard Davidowitz paid another visit to Tech Ticker this week. And despite signs of improvement in consumer confidence and retail stocks rising, Davidowitz is steadfast in his belief the consumer is dead.

Rather than summarize, let me just highlight some of his best one-liners: On retail:

"The retail business is terrible... It's almost all negative."

"We're going to close hundreds of thousands of stores."

On the consumer:
"They’re still over leveraged, they're losing jobs, their credit has been cut back."

On America:
"We are in the tank forever. As a country we are out of control, we're in a death spiral."

On the stock market:
"We're in terrible shape. That's what the fundamentals tell me. I can't explain the stock market."

But it's not all gloom and doom, believe it or not. Davidowitz, who runs a retail consulting firm Davidowitz and Associates, thinks certain discount retailers, grocers, drug store chains and a select few department stores can survive and prosper in the future.

Most notably he likes the "extreme discounters" like Family Dollar, Dollar Tree (which was up almost 5% Tuesday after the company raised its outlook) and 99 Cents Only Stores. And, in the department store sector, he says, Kohl's will "be the only winner" because of their cost controls.

Real US unemployment rate at 16 pct: Fed official

The real US unemployment rate is 16 percent if persons who have dropped out of the labor pool and those working less than they would like are counted, a Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.
"If one considers the people who would like a job but have stopped looking -- so-called discouraged workers -- and those who are working fewer hours than they want, the unemployment rate would move from the official 9.4 percent to 16 percent, said Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart.

Unemployment in Detroit Climbs to 28.9 Percent

Obamageddon is coming!

2009-07-14T20:19:00.000-07:00

http://TrendsResearch.comGerald Celente of the Trends Research Institute looks into the future and gives some rather dire predictions

Hyperinflation Nation

2009-07-07T10:54:00.000-07:00

Hyperinflation Nation starring Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, Jim Rogers, Tom Woods, Gerald Celente, and others. Prepare now before the US dollar is worthless.

2009-06-27T13:53:00.000-07:00

HR 1207, Ron Paul's bill to audit the Federal Reserve

2009-06-24T10:47:00.000-07:00

The information revolution has begun! This is a set of new clips from 2009 exposing the new world order, Barack Obama, and the fraudulent Federal Reserve system. Watch as great American patriots like Alex Jones, Jeremy Scahill, Jesse Ventura, Dennis Kucinich, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff and Ron Paul speak truth to power. The information you will see in these clips is still pushed as a minority opinion by the corporate controlled media. You be the judge.

2009-06-13T04:59:00.000-07:00

Dr. Marc Faber: Bernanke Is An Economic Criminal And In My Opinion He Is A Madman.

2009-05-30T09:08:00.000-07:00

The people who got us in this financial mess are the ones claiming we are in a recovery. The same ones who would not listen to the pending housing bubble are the same ones increasing spending including a trillion dollars per year of out of our country through war and overseas aid. Again, these same people are blind when it comes to seeing the next bubble to pop, the collapse of the US dollar.

2009-05-25T10:56:00.000-07:00

Government controlled capitalism is called fascism.

The merger of corporate and government powers in modern America is plain and simple fascism, believes Gerald Celente, the founder of the Trends Research Institute and publisher of Trends Journal.

I.O.U.S.A. - One Nation. Under Debt. In Stress.

2009-05-19T20:08:00.000-07:00

Wake up, America! We're on the brink of a financial meltdown. I.O.U.S.A. boldly examines the rapidly growing national debt and its consequences for the United States and its citizens. Burdened with an ever-expanding government and military, increased international competition, overextended entitlement programs, and debts to foreign countries that are becoming impossible to honor, America must mend its spendthrift ways or face an economic disaster of epic proportions.

Can You Handle The Social Security Ponzi Scheme Truth?

2009-05-14T12:33:00.000-07:00

BROKE: Washington Comes Clean on Social Security's Dirty Secret (click here to view)

Rep. Alan Grayson asks the Federal Reserve Inspector General about the trillions of dollars lent or spent by the Federal Reserve and where it went, and the trillions of off balance sheet obligations. Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is.

The wave of economic turmoil is just getting started

2009-05-12T07:30:00.000-07:00

The Authors@Google program welcomed Peter Schiff to Google's NY office to discuss his book, "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse"."Peter Schiff is an American economic commentator, author and licensed stock broker who currently serves as president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., a fully accredited brokerage firm based in Darien, Connecticut."

The collapse has just begun. Don't be fooled by the stock market.

Americans do not have the Intellectual capacity to Revolt against the corporate occupation

The US Dollar collapse starts now!

2009-05-09T16:47:00.000-07:00

No Change

2009-05-02T17:13:00.000-07:00

The financial industry brought the economy to its knees, but how did they get away with it? With the nation wondering how to hold the bankers accountable, the American taxpayers are flipping the bill.

Mayday Mayday Mayday - Civil unrest arround the world

2009-05-02T15:56:00.000-07:00

Riots, Anarchy,Looting and Mayhem coming to the USA

Mortgaging the future of our children and grandchildren

2009-04-22T03:25:00.000-07:00

Watch the video of David Walker, then the Comptroller General of the United States, which aired on CBS's "Sixty Minutes" on January 16, 2008. Exactly one month later, he announced his resignation. He now heads up a newly organized foundation designed to sound a warning on America's looming bankruptcy.

Bush and Obama, there is no difference!

No chage - NWO coming faster

2009-04-19T12:13:00.000-07:00

Bush and Obama are one and the same as they are mere puppets in a much larger scheme, the New World Order.

The Obama Deception HQ Full length version (114 minutes)

2009-04-19T06:53:00.000-07:00

Where the April 15, 2009 Tea Parties the precursor to the tax revolution that Gerald Celente refers to in this interview?

Is Obama any different than Bush?

When a Recession Becomes a Depression

2009-04-18T16:42:00.000-07:00

Freefalling into an ocean of debt

2009-04-13T17:26:00.000-07:00

This is an excellent non-technical presentation of what the US Government is spending and how it ranks in comparison to the largest spending causes in US history. More spending is not the answer.

Keynote Speech at the Annual Austrian Scholars Conference

2009-04-02T14:44:00.000-07:00

The above video is an awesome speech by Peter Schiff at the Annual Austrian Scholars Conference. Schiff delivers without any complicated technical jargon with some humorous but enlightening tangents. Simplicity and insight are offered in this 1:16 minute presentation and it is worth every minute of your time. Millions of people around the world are viewing this, so if it is broken up, try again later.

The governmental nonsense continues

2009-04-02T05:53:00.000-07:00

Obama, Bush no difference. Listen and see if you agree.

Change You Can Belive In

2009-03-29T10:39:00.000-07:00

Obama passing new law to allow searching of PC's, Laptops, and media devices

People have been trying to tell you the truth since 2002

2009-03-29T07:36:00.000-07:00

Take a stand, go to your local Tea Party on April 15th.

There's power in numbers. Share this video and get all you know to attend the Tea Party behind the DECC on April 15th.

The more the government does the bigger the problem will get

2009-03-25T15:11:00.000-07:00

They're Gonna Change This Into An Inflationary Depression!

President of the EU: Obama Economic Plan Is A "Road To Hell!"

Interest rates must be raised or else

2009-03-23T09:06:00.000-07:00

The federal government is creating an inflationary depression worse than anything we have ever experienced, an unmitigated disaster.

The American Form of Government

2009-03-19T09:02:00.000-07:00

Will history repeat itself? Pass on and educate all you can before it does.

The Political Class Does Not Know More than Econimst and Historians

2009-03-15T08:46:00.000-07:00

Germany suffered through the same hyper inflation that the USA is headed for. Then the German people elected Adolph Hitler on the promise he would fix the economy. Are we headed down same path?

“200 top economic minds signed a national ad published in The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal against the trillion dollar spending binge proposed by democrats. The ad, sponsored by the Cato Institute, blasts the massive boondoggle that funds liberal projects under the guise of ‘stimulating’ the economy.

http://www.cato.org/fiscalreality

How Social Security Works

2009-03-14T11:12:00.000-07:00

Socail Securiyis a Ponzi Scheme not a "Trust" Fund

Change is all you will have left unless you take action

2009-03-02T18:52:00.000-08:00

US Congress is oblivious to what they are doing

George Soros weighs in on the US Financial Crisis, $40/barrel oil and enemies in the way of the prevailing world order.

China 'worried' about US Treasury holdings
BEIJING (AP)

Pay close attention to the pain on Terry Csoxon's face when he says
"Today will seem like the good old days "

USA Government Factor

Inflation is a hidden tax

Updated July 14, 2009 2200

DOW Jones: Election Day 9,625 NOW 8,359 DOWN 13%

Oil WTI Cushing Spot THEN $36.51/bbl NOW $59.52/bbl UP 39%

Local gas price THEN $1.86/gal NOW $2.59/gal

U.S. Fed Funds Rate THEN .25 NOW .25 U.S.

Unemployment THEN 7.2 THEN 9.5 and going UP

Inflation THEN 0.10 NOW -1.3

United States GDP Growth Rate before Obama election 0.7 NOW -2.5

National Debt when Bush left office $10,000,000,000,000.00

CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN OR THE STATUS QUO OR WORSE?

Treasury Department Historical Debt Outstanding – Annual

Runaway Debt Train Obama’s first two years don’t look pretty

*CAUTION* – Click here only if you can handle the painful truth

Jim Cramer who voted for Obama says "This is the greatest wealth destruction I've ever seen by a President."

"Doing this to our children is immoral"
Thomas Jefferson

Part 1
ZERO PERCENT chance Obama stimulus plan will work!

Part 2
Had the government not cut taxes and kept increasing taxes we would still be in this mess. Increased government spending is going to things worse.

US Government is ignoring history

The World's Largest Ponzi Scheme The US Social Security System

Ponzi Scheme -What The Heck Is A True Ponzi Scam?

Our US government is ignoring history. Past due on the abolishment the World Bank and IMF

Jim Rogers "Civil Unrest in a Couple Years" Economy Going to Get Alot Worse" - Feb. 25 2009

Peter Schiff with Obama we are getting Bush on Steroids. The only change is MORE Bush

Financial Armageddon Forecast

The record of history is absolutely clear

Checkmate the collapse of the American dollar and government tax shortfall

The fizz is gone Lindsey Williams was right

China is getting restless with US situation